Breaking Down the ATP Rankings Podium After Sinner’s Timeout

The **ATP Rankings **measure each player's performance over the past 12 months. That means until a tournament like Wimbledon 2025 kicks off, the points from Wimbledon 2024 still count. Once Wimbledon 2025 wraps up, the previous year's points are dropped and replaced with fresh ones. This is why you often hear that a player is “defending” “x” points—they're the points earned at the last edition.

Now that we're on the same page, let’s dive into the battle for the** Number One **spot following Jannik Sinner’s three month ban, which sidelines him until the Rome Masters on May 7.

Impact of Sinner’s Timeout on the Rankings

Until Rome, Sinner will miss out on four Masters 1000 events (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid), plus several ATP-500 and ATP-250 tournaments. This absence results in a loss of 1,600 points from these four Masters 1000 events alone.

Sinner vs. Zverev

• Zverev is defending:
  • **400 points **from these four Masters 1000 events, plus
  • 100 points from Los Cabos,
  • Total: 500 points.
    
• ** Sinner currently leads Zverev** by 3,695 points. By the end of the Madrid tournament, Zverev will automatically shave off at least 1,100 points. If he manages to secure more than 2,595 points in these four Masters 1000 or other matches up to Rome (including tournaments like Buenos Aires, where he scored 50, as well as Rio and Acapulco), he could challenge for the Number One position. Securing 2,595 out of a possible 5,250 points is challenging—but not impossible.

Later, in tournaments such as** Rome, Roland Garros, Halle, and Wimbledon, **Zverev defends 2,500 points, while Sinner defends 1,700 points until Wimbledon—an 800 point advantage for Sinner.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz

• Alcaraz is defending:
  • ** 2,000 points from four Masters 1000 **events (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid), plus
  • **100 points **from Buenos Aires,
  • Total: 2,100 points.
    
• Sinner currently leads Alcaraz by 4,320 points. If Alcaraz nets an additional** 500 points,** the gap remains the same since he would lose 1,600 points. To tie with Sinner, Alcaraz would need to accumulate 4,820 points across those four Masters 1000 events (4,000 points) plus points from planned ATP-500 events (Doha and Barcelona). Pulling 4,720 out of a maximum 5,000 points is nearly impossible.
  Furthermore, in subsequent tournaments such as Roland Garros, Queen’s, and Wimbledon, Alcaraz defends 4,050 points compared to Sinner’s 1,700 points—resulting in a 2,350 point edge in favor of Sinner.

In summary, unless Zverev pulls off something spectacular and Sinner significantly underperforms, Sinner is likely to maintain the Number One position for quite some time. Moreover, Sinner kicked off the year by bagging 2,000 points at the Australian Open, further cementing his standing. For more in depth analysis on the ATP Rankings and updates on Sinner’s performance, check out the ATP official website or explore detailed discussions on Tennis Race for History

Ranking ATP	Sinner	Zverev	Alcaraz
Ranking ATP 15/2/2025	11.830	8.135	7.510
Points until Roma	1.600	500	2.100
Without points until Roma	10.230	7.635	5.410
Maximum points until Roma	0	5.250	5.000
Maximum total points until Roma	10.230	12.885	10.410
Needs		2.595	4.820
From Roma until Wimbledon	1.700	2.500	4.050
Sinner Advantage		800	2.350