Madrid Masters 2026: without Alcaraz or Djokovic, Sinner leads an open draw with Shelton, Fils and the rise of Rafa Jódar

The Madrid Masters 2026 begins under very different circumstances than expected just a few days ago. The withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz, following a wrist injury aggravated in Barcelona, and the absence of Novak Djokovic due to injury leave the tournament without two of its biggest stars.

However, this does not weaken the event — quite the opposite. The Caja Mágica hosts a particularly intriguing edition, with Jannik Sinner as the main favorite, the recent momentum of Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils, and the emergence of a player attracting major attention in Spain: Rafa Jódar.

Sinner, the clear reference point

The first major takeaway is obvious: without Alcaraz and Djokovic, Sinner becomes the dominant figure in the draw.

The Italian arrives in Madrid after winning Monte Carlo and with a chance to achieve something historic: he is chasing his fifth consecutive Masters 1000 title, following Paris 2025, Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo 2026.

The draw itself already suggests a demanding path, with dangerous names in his section such as:

• Alex de Minaur
• Joao Fonseca
• Rafa Jódar

And potential later clashes against:

• Ben Shelton
• Arthur Fils
• Lorenzo Musetti

More than just “Sinner as favorite”

This means the tournament narrative cannot be reduced to “Sinner is the favorite and little else”.

While the Italian leads the field, the draw is full of players capable of shifting the balance of the competition.

Shelton arrives with momentum from Munich

Ben Shelton arrives in Madrid after winning the BMW Open in Munich, defeating Flavio Cobolli and securing his second title of the season.

More importantly, he achieved this on clay, showing clear progress on a surface that was previously considered less favorable for him.

With his power, confidence, and current form, Shelton must be considered one of the main threats in this edition.

Arthur Fils, impossible to ignore

Another name that cannot be overlooked is Arthur Fils.

The Frenchman enters Madrid with strong momentum after winning the ATP 500 Barcelona, where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final.

This title confirms his return to top form after injury struggles and positions him as one of the most dangerous players on clay this season.

He is no longer just a prospect — he is now a player capable of beating top opponents and competing deep into big tournaments.

Rafa Jódar, the Spanish spotlight

Then there is the player that will draw the most attention from the Spanish crowd: Rafa Jódar.

This is not just a footnote.

The 19-year-old from Madrid won his first ATP title in Marrakech two weeks ago, defeating Marco Trungelliti in the final, and followed it up with a semifinal run in Barcelona.

The tournament itself highlights him as one of the main local attractions, and the draw sets up a challenging yet exciting path:

• Opening match against Jesper de Jong
• Possible clash with De Minaur
• And potentially advancing into Sinner’s section

For a tournament missing Alcaraz, Jódar’s rise becomes one of the key storylines of the week.

Why Alcaraz’s absence matters so much

It is important to understand why Alcaraz’s absence has such a strong impact.

Not only because he is one of the biggest names in tennis, but also because Madrid was expected to be a key stop in his preparation for Roland Garros.

His withdrawal creates both a competitive and emotional gap in the tournament.

At the same time, Djokovic’s absence removes another historical reference point, further opening the field.

These are two major losses — but they also create opportunities for others.

Three layers to understand Madrid 2026

From a sporting perspective, this edition of the Mutua Madrid Open 2026 can be analyzed through three key layers:

1. The clear favorite

Sinner stands as the player to beat.

2. The immediate challengers

Shelton, Fils, Zverev and Musetti all have realistic chances to make deep runs.

3. The breakout storyline

Rafa Jódar is no longer just a promising wildcard — he is now a player with results and momentum.

An open and unpredictable tournament

The key question is not just who is missing, but who can take advantage of the situation.

Sinner leads, but Madrid is far from a formality.

It is:

• an open draw
• with a world No. 1 in top form
• with recent champions gaining confidence
• and with a young Spanish player emerging as a real contender

Conclusion

In short, Sinner is the clear favorite, but the real interest of the Madrid Masters 2026 lies in whether he can impose his dominance against in-form players like Shelton and Fils, and how far Rafa Jódar can go on home soil.

Even without Alcaraz and Djokovic, Madrid remains a tournament with strong competitive and narrative value.